Long-term development of total emissions

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks. The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.