A model for Sclerotinia sclerotiorum infection and disease development in lettuce, based on the effects of temperature, relative humidity and ascospore density

The plant pathogen Sclerotinia sclerotiorum can cause serious losses on lettuce crops worldwide and as for most other susceptible crops, control relies on the application of fungicides, which target airborne ascospores. However, the efficacy of this approach depends on accurate timing of these sprays, which could be improved by an understanding of the environmental conditions that are conducive to infection. A mathematical model for S. sclerotiorum infection and disease development on lettuce is presented here for the first time, based on quantifying the effects of temperature, relative humidity (RH) and ascospore density in multiple controlled environment experiments. It was observed that disease can develop on lettuce plants inoculated with dry ascospores in the absence of apparent leaf wetness (required for spore germination). To explain this, the model conceptualises an infection court area containing microsites (in leaf axils and close to the stem base) where conditions are conducive to infection, the size of which is modified by ambient RH. The model indicated that minimum, maximum and optimum temperatures for ascospore germination were 0.0, 29.9 and 21.7°C respectively and that maximum rates of disease development occurred at spore densities >87 spores cm−2. Disease development was much more rapid at 80–100% RH at 20°C, compared to 50–70% RH and resulted in a greater proportion of lettuce plants infected. Disease development was also more rapid at 15–27°C compared to 5–10°C (85% RH). The model was validated by a further series of independent controlled environment experiments where both RH and temperature were varied and generally simulated the pattern of disease development well. The implications of the results in terms of Sclerotinia disease forecasting are discussed