Summary [April 1976]

While different countries are now emerging from the recession at different rates, there are unmistakable signs of a slow but steady recovery in world trade and production. Particularly substantial evidence of progress is coming from the United States and West Germany, the stimulus in both countries coming largely from an increase in consumer spending. It is clear that the monetary authorities' in both countries are following a policy of cautious expansion, which is calculated to further moderate the rate of domestic price increases. It seems unlikely, however, that unemployment will fall much below its present high levels before the end of the year