The Scottish economy [September 1991]

This issue of the Commentary contains the first set of output projections from the Institute's new short-term model of the Scottish economy. The model forecasts quarterly movements in the seasonally-adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC). Note that this excludes construction but includes SIC Class 13 (oil and gas). It is intended that subsequent Commentaries will also include quarterly forecasts of employment and unemployment. Details of the model are contained in the Briefing Paper in this issue. This article shows movements in the actual output index and in the index as predicted by the model, and also shows forecasts for the period 1991 Ql to 1992 Q4. Further details of the actual and projected indices are also demonstrated