New methodologies for multi-scale time-variant reliability analysis of complex lifeline networks

The cost of maintaining existing civil infrastructure is enormous. Since the livelihood of the public depends on such infrastructure, its state must be managed appropriately using quantitative approaches. Practitioners must consider not only which components are most fragile to hazard, e.g. seismicity, storm surge, hurricane winds, etc., but also how they participate on a network level using network analysis. Focusing on particularly damaged components does not necessarily increase network functionality, which is most important to the people that depend on such infrastructure. Several network analyses, e.g. S-RDA, LP-bounds, and crude-MCS, and performance metrics, e.g. disconnection bounds and component importance, are available for such purposes. Since these networks are existing, the time state is also important. If networks are close to chloride sources, deterioration may be a major issue. Information from field inspections may also have large impacts on quantitative models. To address such issues, hazard risk analysis methodologies for deteriorating networks subjected to seismicity, i.e. earthquakes, have been created from analytics. A bridge component model has been constructed for these methodologies. The bridge fragilities, which were constructed from data, required a deeper level of analysis as these were relevant for specific structures. Furthermore, chloride-induced deterioration network effects were investigated. Depending on how mathematical models incorporate new information, many approaches are available, such as Bayesian model updating. To make such procedures more flexible, an adaptive importance sampling scheme was created for structural reliability problems. Additionally, such a method handles many kinds of system and component problems with singular or multiple important regions of the limit state function. These and previously developed analysis methodologies were found to be strongly sensitive to the network size. Special network topologies may be more or less computationally difficult, while the resolution of the network also has large affects. To take advantage of some types of topologies, network hierarchical structures with super-link representation have been used in the literature to increase the computational efficiency by analyzing smaller, densely connected networks; however, such structures were based on user input and subjective at times. To address this, algorithms must be automated and reliable. These hierarchical structures may indicate the structure of the network itself. This risk analysis methodology has been expanded to larger networks using such automated hierarchical structures. Component importance is the most important objective from such network analysis; however, this may only provide the information of which bridges to inspect/repair earliest and little else. High correlations influence such component importance measures in a negative manner. Additionally, a regional approach is not appropriately modelled. To investigate a more regional view, group importance measures based on hierarchical structures have been created. Such structures may also be used to create regional inspection/repair approaches. Using these analytical, quantitative risk approaches, the next generation of decision makers may make both component and regional-based optimal decisions using information from both network function and further effects of infrastructure deterioration