Upward and onward: direction of counterfactuals, future action, and well-being over time

Functional accounts of counterfactual thinking (Epstude & Roese, 2008) argue that upward counterfactuals make us feel bad in the short-term but maximize outcomes in the long term. The short-term relationship is well-established, but the relationship of counterfactual thinking to behavior, affect and well-being over the long term has yet to be tested. Three experimental studies spanning different lengths of time uncovered that individuals who provided an upward counterfactual were more likely to subsequently take action to improve themselves and feel better over time about what they described, compared to those who provided downward counterfactual or factual event descriptions. Repetitive thought appears to play a role in these patterns. The findings provide new insights into the long-term adaptive value of counterfactual thinking