Policy and Structures of Japanese Import Demand for Beef and Feedgrains

215 p.Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1984.The policy and import demand structures of beef, corn, and sorghum of Japan were reviewed and quantified by a system of 12 seemingly unrelated equations consisting of 12 endogenous and 23 exogenous variables. Due to statistical modeling problems, three modified versions of the original model were estimated and have mixed results in the t-tests. By using the root-mean-square error (RMSE), turning-point percentage error (TPPE), the ex post and the historical simulations collectively as criteria, Model II was chosen as the best paradigm. Empirical implications drawn from this model indicated that Japan's beef import quota, which is determined partly by the retail beef price variance and the per capita consumption of beef in Japan, is one of the significant factors that determine both the total beef imports and Japan's individual country imports. Hence, by the large country assumption, Japan could benefit from its protectionistic beef import policy. The model also confirmed price competition between Australia and New Zealand beef of identical quality and the quantitative substitution of U.S. and the Oceania beef due to quotas.The ex ante simulations later in the study showed a trade-off between beef and feedgrain imports in addition to potentials of cross-substitution of similar commodity from different sources of supply and such close substitutes as corn and sorghum. Both total corn and sorghum imports were subject to the own-price and cross-price factors and the number of livestock in Japan. Individual imports of corn and sorghum were statistically independent of the import prices due probably to Japan's high dependence on overseas feedgrain supply. The U.S. dominated both the corn and sorghum trade because its exports of these commodities to Japan dominated Japan's demand functions for the commodities from other sources. For feedgrain trade, the freight rates between the U.S. Gulf ports and Japan influenced neither Thailand-Japan corn trade nor Australian-Japan sorghum trade. Australia's exportable supply of sorghum influenced both U.S.-Japan and Australia-Japan trade in sorghum, which, on the other hand, influences sorghum trade between Argentina and Japan.U of I OnlyRestricted to the U of I community idenfinitely during batch ingest of legacy ETD