Situational factors affecting judgments of future performance and judgment-performance correspondence

The present study investigated the effects of three situational factors on judgments of future performance, judgment confidence, and judgment-performance correspondence. Research participants were familiarized with the performance task under varying conditions of monetary rewards, perceived internal control, and private/public disclosure of the judgments. Judgments of future performance and confidence were highest when individuals perceived high levels of internal control and when monetary rewards (both contingent and noncontingent) were present. Task persistence was greatest under the conditions of contingent rewards and high perceived internal control, however, actual performance was not affected by any of the situational factors. Measures of judgment accuracy and judgment-performance relations indicated that the correspondence between judgments of future performance and actual performance varied as a function of the situational factors. Specifically, individuals overestimated their future performance levels the least when perceived internal control was low and when no monetary rewards were involved. The judgment-performance relation was the strongest with no monetary rewards, high perceived internal control, and public disclosure of the judgments. Satisfaction with performance on the almanac task was negatively related to the degree to which judgments of future performance exceeded actual performance levels. These results are discussed in a theoretical framework that contrasts judgments of future performance and self-set goals.U of I OnlyETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permissio