Rapid Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Urban Infrastructure Networks by Matrix-Based System Reliability Method

Risk assessment of urban infrastructure networks under natural and man-made hazards is often performed by repeated computational simulations based on random samples of hazard scenarios and corresponding component status. This sampling-based approach may prevent near-real-time application of probabilistic methods to hazard mitigation of infrastructure networks and risk-informed decision support. This paper proposes a non-sampling-based, multi-scale network reliability analysis approach based on the recently proposed matrix-based system reliability method. This approach accounts for the spatial correlation of seismic demands and uses the disjoint cut sets and link sets identified by a state-of-the-art network analysis algorithm. The paper demonstrates the proposed approach through a case study of a Memphis Light, Gas and Water natural gas network to identify the opportunities and challenges in rapid risk assessment and decision support for urban infrastructure networks.published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewe