Is Political Evolution Over? An Anthropological Analysis of the Twentieth Century

AbstractWhy did human societies grow from small bands and villages into highly populous nationsand empires? This process, termed political evolution, is explained by one major strand ofanthropological theorizing as having resulted from population pressure, warfare, and conquest.War is seen as having been essential because polities do not willingly surrender autonomy. The20th century apparently brought both an increase in population pressure (the ratio of humans tothe available resource base) and a considerable amount of war, but only a modest increase inpolitical evolution as measured by the average population of nations. One interpretation of this isthat in order to precipitate political evolution, population pressure and war are only necessaryconditions, not sufficient ones; if and when substantial political evolution resumes, it again willbe by force of arms. A second interpretation is that a great deal of political evolution did occur inthe 20th century, but in a new form: voluntary federation. Motivated by fear of future global war,nations surrendered modest but appreciable autonomy to join the League of Nations, then itssuccessor, the United Nations. Regression analysis using decennial time-series data reveals ahighly significant relationship between voluntary federation and population density, supportingthe possibility that voluntary federation is indeed the culminating form of political evolution