Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decisionmakers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reducednumber of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between theseactors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-knownmulticriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow theso-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al.,1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknownvariance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative prioritiesof the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of themedian of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner(priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will beused in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution ofthe problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling toolsGeologische Vereinigung; Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya; International Association for Mathematical Geology; Patronat de l’Escola Politècnica Superior de la Universitat de Girona; Fundació privada: Girona, Universitat i Futur; Càtedra Lluís Santaló d’Aplicacions de la Matemàtica; Consell Social de la Universitat de Girona; Ministerio de Ciencia i Tecnología