Hipercrescimento e colapso: Conjeturando cenários da sobrecarga das revistas científicas brasileiras líderes na Ciência da Informação

Brazilian journals in Information Science typically depend on semi-voluntary work, with scarce resources. The inclusion of some of these journals in reputable databases gives them status and attracts more and more submissions, without resource escalability. This article explores this context through a system dynamics model that represents article stocks and flows throughout the editorial process. We run four alternative scenarios, with different quantities of submissions, with or without interventions (closing for new submissions and sharp increase of desk rejections). In these scenarios, a 50% increase in submissions leads to a total evaluation time of about 19 months, regardless of interventions that alleviate the overhead only momentarily. Few overburdened editors support the continuity of the system