BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONISATION AND A REAL CONVERGENCE OF POLAND WITH THE EURO ZONE

The real convergence of Poland with the euro zone is essential if the country is to enjoy the full range of benefits from the joining of the European Currency Union. The most important criterion of a successful monetary policy is the synchronisation of the Polish business cycle. The aim of the paper is to estimate the degree of real convergence of the Polish economy with the euro zone, which manifests itself in the synchronisation of the broadly understood business cycle, taking into account such factors as production, prices, the labour market and economic relations with foreign countries. A relatively strong synchronisation of the business cycle in Poland and in the euro zone has been observed in import and export, while in the case of industrial production the synchronisation is much weaker. At the same time, no synchronisation for the GDP, the rate of unemployment, or inflation has been found. It can be concluded that the business cycle of the Polish economy is only to a small degree synchronised with the euro zone countries. This means that Poland is not the optimal currency area with the euro zone and may be exposed to asymmetric demand and supply shocks. This, in turn, limits the potential benefits for Poland from the joining the euro zone in the near future