Avfolkas Sveriges kommuner? -En studie av den demografiska utvecklingen i tre svenska kommuner

Swedish municipalities vary in size and they are differently vulnerable in regards to alterations and development. During the years 1993-2013 the population decreased in 161 of the 290 municipalities, and the following question leads us to the investigated problem: What is the source of the decreased population, and what are the consequences? The thesis restricts the research objects into three municipalities, selected from different geographical regions. Västervik is chosen object from Götaland, Fagersta from Svealand and Arjeplog from Norrland. The dependent structure of the decreasing population size is analysed by estimating ARIMA-models. The thesis further clarifies what the source is to the negative development and the skewed distribution of age within the municipalities. Results states that the amount of births are too few in relation to amount of deaths, and also that the frequency of those who are moving in to the municipalities are not more than those who move out. When such patterns are consistent for a long time, it results in decreasing population, which further leads to a reduced tax base that challenge the foundations of the social structure and the welfare structure. Given that the demographical structure has an impact on the municipalities prerequisites, the stream of refugees which reached Sweden in 2014 might be considered as a solution to the problem of decreasing populations. Except ethical aspects, one reason to integrate people with preferable age distribution is that they might balance up the skew demographic structure, which also generate a greater tax assessment for the municipalities. This thesis concludes that the stream of refugees has not changed the demographical structures significant in year 2015, but these people will most likely contribute to develop an evenly age distribution. The conclusion is that the recently arrived refugees might be a solution to the decreasing population for the majority of the municipalities. However, the economic growth might not increase in the same positive direction, since the presumption for a successful integration of refugees are labour-opportunities