Biofuel plantations and isoprene emissions in Svea and Götaland

Bioenergy as an alternative source for energy production and transportation has gained attention to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) as dedicated energy crops for heat and energy production have many demonstrated and proved climatic, biodiversity and environmental benefits, but concerns regarding the occurred Land Cover Change (LCC) from agriculture land into SRC have been raised. Since they are recognized as high isoprene emitters at higher rates than other croplands and once isoprene interact with Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) it would lead to O3 formation to unhealthy levels. A Geographical Information System (GIS) model used in this study offered a simple method to quantify LCC. Different geoprocessing tools and zonal (Spatial Analyst) tools such as tabulate area to explore the distribution of biofuels plantation areas, SRC and rapeseeds, are relative to each land cover type. And to calculate the increases in isoprene annual turnovers caused by cultivation of thousands of hectares of SRC in Svealand and Götaland regions, a simplified methodology for isoprene annual emissions has been used. The GIS model was used to generate maps and GIS analyses and then relate isoprene emissions with SRC plantations and other ecosystem types. The results showed that the temporal development of the areas used for willow and rapeseed plantations increased between the time period 2002 and 2008 and declined between 2008 and 2014, except for poplar which showed a rise in the covered area from 2002 to 2014. Also, an increase in the number of small plots that are equal or less than 6 ha and removing large plots was obvious during that period, and the areas used for rapeseed were larger than the areas used for SRC. LCC was basically from non-irrigated arable land into SRC and rapeseed crops, about 95% of LCC from non-irrigated arable land into energy crops was dedicated to rapeseed and only 5% of LCC was dedicated to SRC in 2014, this pattern has not changed since 2002. The emitted isoprene from SRC due to LCC was almost 9 times more than the emitted isoprene from the corresponding area of other agricultural crops. The results would support the decision making process about the selection of SRC locations in the context of LCC from agriculture land and other land cover types, and in the context of the anthropogenic pollutants NO2 to avoid or reduce the effects of LCC into SRC on air quality in Sweden.Introduction: Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) such as willow and poplar as bioenergy crops are mainly used for heat and energy production in heat and power plants (CHP). They proved to have climatic, biodiversity and environmental benefits. Their life cycle starts at any time in July. They are cultivated mostly on agricultural land. Harvest starts in winter after 3-4 years (4 growing seasons). Renewable energy in Sweden forms 50.6% of the total energy use. Bioenergy forms 33.6% of that figure. Willow chips produced 0.55 TWh in 2013. Problem: Land Cover Change (LCC) from agriculture land into SRC. SRC are isoprene emitters. Isoprene leads to changes in air chemistry and formation of Ozone, once it interacts with Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollutant that >1.88 ug/m3 level. Objective: is to map the temporal and spatial development of willow, poplar 2001-2014 in Svealand and Götaland regions. To Analyze their distribution and fields size, to quantify LCC from forest/agriculture land into SRC. And to quantify isoprene emissions from SRC yearly. This study was premised on three hypotheses testing. Methodology: Different GIS analysis tools was carried out to meet the objectives using ESRI ArcGIS software. Results: The areas used for willow and rapeseed plantations increased between 2002-2008 and declined between 2008 -2014 An increase in the number of small fields (1.88 ug/m3, sufficient for Ozone. Size of potential suitable sites for willow expansion on agriculture land are 300,000 ha where NO2 levels are