Effekter av en havsnivåhöjning kring Falsterbohalvön

There are many signs indicating a climate change, which will affect us globally as well as locally. One of the most obvious effects in Scandinavia is the threatening sea level rise. The sea level rise will affect huge parts of Sweden’s coastal areas. Especially vulnerable is the Falsterbo peninsula in southwest of Scania, Sweden. The low surroundings already today suffer from short term coastal flooding when the sea rises less than a meter above normal sea level during winter storms. The new federal construction law in Sweden has transferred much more of the responsibility directly to the local authorities. The authorities have to take the expected climate change and its effects into account, and plan for preventive measures already today, when planning new settlements and infrastructure. It’s in the authorities’ interest and responsibility to estimate which areas and in what way they can be affected by the expected increase of sea level caused by the global warming. An important parameter is the economical values that can be endangered by the climate change. To get an overview of the situation, a digital elevation model using ArcGIS and Safe FME have been constructed. The elevation model is based upon the Swedish National Elevation Database and the new elevation data has been collected using airborne laser scanning. The data has a resolution of two times two meter and the data were then interpolated using ArcGIS to a raster resolution of zero point five times zero point five meters. Based on this digital elevation model several different spatial and economical analyses have been carried out. In the analysis it has been presumed that we will have a sea level rise of one meter. If this becomes a reality it will have a huge impact on the area of interest. Out of the nature protection areas, more than 40% of the (Natura2000) around the Falsterbo peninsula will be flooded. In the studied area there are great economical values worth protecting, like real estate. Only based on private real estate properties, there is a total value of more than 40 billion SEK, this is excluding infrastructure, public buildings, recreations sights etc. This means that the total economical value is much higher. Skanör and Falsterbo is the most exposed area were only 27% of the populated areas are located higher than two meter above sea level, which is considered as the safe zone if we have one meter of sea level rise in combination with high water level. In the range up to two meter above today sea level there are more than 1,700 real estate properties on the peninsula. Sea level rise is not a new phenomena and it will not occur suddenly during a short period of time. It is rather a slow rising process during a long time span that will go on during the coming hundred years. Most certain, the sea level rise will even keep on after that. People will slowly adapt to the changed environment, but authorities have to take the future changes into consideration already today when planning new settlements and new infrastructure