Ex-ante and ex-post modelling of energy performance in buildings

Despite energy efficiency is considered as being the most cost-effective measure to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions in the Swedish residential sector, few barriers still exist that hamper the development of a reliable and effective policy able to shift consumption patterns towards a more sustainable growth. Although the potential energy savings in the Swedish residential stock are claimed to be high, the few existing quantitative analysis rely on outdated data. In addition, ex-ante evaluations of energy efficiency policies targeting the national residential sector are scarce and often employ general modelling tools, e.g. NORDIC-MARKAL, used to answer any type of energy policy questions. Analysts and policy makers are in clear need of an improved evaluation tool that specifically targets the residential sector and allows for reliable outcomes. The EEB_Sweden is a flexible modelling tool recently developed to explicitly analyse energy efficiency policies targeting the Swedish residential sector. In this work, the EEB_Sweden platform is further developed by integrating a comprehensive disaggregated set of energy values, associated with current and potential future technological configurations, present in Swedish multi-family buildings. The database is obtained by carrying out energy performance analysis of multi-dwelling buildings belonging to eight different year-of-construction segments and three climate zones, using the sophisticated building energy use simulator eQuest. Once implemented in EEB_Swden, the database is tested by performing some policy scenarios. The outcome is used to assess if energy efficiency policy has the potential to trigger a radical change in the multi-family building segment