Stakeholder-based Scenarios for Hawaii’s Electric Energy System: Overcoming structural barriers and lock-ins for Big Island’s sustainable future

Reliance on fossil fuels, in many parts of the world, represents a burden not only foreconomic reasons but also in terms of import dependency. The situation is particularly severein islands that do not feature interconnected grids and use oil derivatives for electricitygeneration. The consequent high prices for electricity, though, translate into an increasedeconomic viability for renewable energy and energy efficiency investments. In this context theeconomic appeal of clean energy solutions simplifies the costs-benefits discussion, allowing tobetter isolate the variables that deal with the interaction between stakeholders, their individualinterests and strategies, and the rule-setting position of authorities. For this study a frameworkwas developed to build an analysis on the inputs and drivers of stakeholders; the frameworkcombines stakeholder analysis, SWOT analysis, scenario forecasting, scenario planning andmulticriteria evaluation. The purpose is to address structural and system-level challenges forthe achievement of sustainable configurations: their overcoming has the priority on narrowerconcerns, such as technology-specific ones. In the context of Hawaii Island, two scenarioshave been sketched and evaluated qualitatively, to explore possible strategic choices anddevelop observations and recommendations. Findings indicate that priority should be given tocomprehensive energy planning (nudged by public agencies), to investments in transmission infrastructures and, possibly, to the dismantling of the existing vertically integrated monopoly