Approaches to stochastic modeling of wind turbines

Background. This paper study statistical data gathered from wind turbines located on the territory of the Republic of Poland. The research is aimed to construct the stochastic model that predicts the change of wind speed with time. Purpose. The purpose of this work is to find the optimal distribution for the approximation of available statistical data on wind speed. Methods. We consider four distributions of a random variable: Log-Normal, Weibull, Gamma and Beta. In order to evaluate the parameters of distributions we use method of maximum likelihood. To assess the the results of approximation we use a quantile-quantile plot. Results. All the considered distributions properly approximate the available data. The Weibull distribution shows the best results for the extreme values of the wind speed. Conclusions. The results of the analysis are consistent. © ECMS Zita Zoltay Paprika, Péter Horák, Kata Váradi,Péter Tamás Zwierczyk, Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, János Péter Rádics (Editors)