Modeling the development of trade ties of Russia within the framework of regional integration based on the theory of gravity

The aim of the research is the creation of a model for forecasting of international trade flows of Russia with other countries through regional economic integration. The study is based on a systematic approach, the theory of gravity and methods of econometric modeling. On the basis of a systemic approach we classified the development factors as external and internal, and proposed to use econometric analysis for their investigation. Based on the theory of gravity, we formulated a hypothesis that external factors have a major impact on development of international trade ties, their cumulative effect acts like the physical phenomenon of gravity. The following set of variables is proposed as factors: mutual export and import operations, external turnover, presence of a common border, logistic parameters, foreign direct investment (FDI), size of population, inflation rates, etc. The results of the research are embodied by a number of gravitational models. We made an attempt to use one of these models to investigate the trade expansion between Russia and its closest economic partners - neighboring countries. The obtained results gave a low value of the square of the coefficient of determination. We concluded that this variant of the model does not allow to achieve the required accuracy of prediction. To increase the adequacy of the model, it was decided to use the dynamic variable which characterizes international trade - "last year export turnover between countries". The results of the research showed that the use of an autoregressive gravity model with inclusion of such a factor significantly improves the quality of the model and enables to forecast the international trade flows between Russia and other countries. © 2017. revistaESPACIOS.com