A risk score to identify HIV-infected women most likely to become lost to follow-up in the postpartum period

Access to lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is expanding among HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women throughout sub-Saharan Africa. For this strategy to meaningfully improve maternal HIV outcomes, retention in HIV care is essential. We developed a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of loss to follow-up (LTFU) at 6 months postpartum from HIV care, using data from public health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia. LTFU was defined as not presenting for HIV care within 60 days of the last scheduled appointment. We used logistic regression to assess demographic, obstetric, and HIV predictors of LTFU and to develop a simple risk score. Sensitivity and specificity were assessed at each risk score cut-point. Among 2,029 pregnant women initiating cART between 2009 and 2011, 507 (25%) were LTFU by 6 months postpartum. Parity, education, employment status, WHO clinical stage, duration of cART during pregnancy, and number of antenatal care visits were associated with LTFU (p-value