Crude oil price changes: Common trend and common cycle features

The purpose of the paper is to assess the impact of OPEC and US crude oil production adjustments on global crude oil price changes. Results in the paper indicate there is a common long term trend between change in OPEC production and crude oil price, but there is no evidence of common trend between change in crude oil price and US oil production. Our finding also indicate there is no evidence of common cycle feature between change in OPEC production and crude oil price, but there is strong evidence of common cyclical association between change in US production and crude oil price. These results imply change in OPEC production adjust crude oil price trend in the long term, but the short term cyclical change of crude oil price is influenced by change in US crude oil production