Flood-based farming systems and human-water dynamics in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar

The flood-based farming systems in the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar are changing. Change describes the modification of the flood pattern which is constituted by depth and duration of flooding and is the determining factor for rice cultivation. Flood-induced crop loss poses the major challenge to the farmers in the delta. To understand the flood-based farming systems in the Ayeyarwady Delta, the random forest algorithm was applied to generate rice suitability location models and to create suitability maps. Thus, correlations were observed between the developed definitions for the three rice growing areas based on quantitative interviews with farmers and the physical factors obtained from the input datasets – mainly remote sensing data concerning surface water and vegetation. To underpin the information of the generated suitability maps, human-water dynamics in the Ayeyarwady Delta are exemplified in terms of the pluralistic water research (PWR) framework (EVERS ET AL. 2017). Socio-economic and hydro-climatic drivers control this system and besides determine the suitable location of the three rice growing areas. This concept facilitates an understanding of the relationships and feedbacks of the human-water dynamics and is able to analyse flood risk mitigation in the Ayeyarwady Delta