Climate change and water availability in western Nepal

The response of any hydrological system to climate change may differ depending on characteristics of the system. Such studies are lacking for basins in Western Nepal. This paper, therefore, argues for a need to re-phrase the context of Western Nepal in more positive light and then analyses how a projected change in climate may impact on water availability of the region with a case of Chamelia watershed. A hydrological model in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) environment is developed for the purpose. Future climate is projected using a set of fi ve Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). Then response of streamfl ow with projected change in climate is assessed. Results show the developed model performance is adequate to represent hydrological characteristics of the watershed. Future is projected to be warmer (high model consensus) and slightly wetter (more uncertainty), with winter and premonsoon season receiving more rainfall. Under the projected future changes, simulated stream fl ow is projected to change across future periods and seasons. The results are expected to be useful for future water resource and water infrastructure planning in the area