End-to-end delay model for train messaging over public land mobile networks

Modern train control systems rely on a dedicated radio network for train to ground communications. A number of possible alternatives have been analysed to adopt the European Rail Traffic Management System/European Train Control System (ERTMS/ETCS) control system on local/regional lines to improve transport capacity. Among them, a communication system based on public networks (cellular & satellite) provides an interesting, effective and alternative solution to proprietary and expensive radio networks. To analyse performance of this solution, it is necessary to model the end-to-end delay and message loss to fully characterize the message transfer process from train to ground and vice versa. Starting from the results of a railway test campaign over a 300 km railway line for a cumulative 12,000 traveled km in 21 days, in this paper, we derive a statistical model for the end-to-end delay required for delivering messages. In particular, we propose a two states model allowing for reproducing the main behavioral characteristics of the end-to-end delay as observed experimentally. Model formulation has been derived after deep analysis of the recorded experimental data. When it is applied to model a realistic scenario, it allows for explicitly accounting for radio coverage characteristics, the received power level, the handover points along the line and for the serving radio technology. As an example, the proposed model is used to generate the end-to-end delay profile in a realistic scenario