The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI): A Quantitative Model. Concept and methodology

This report describes the concept and methodology of the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI). The index was designed to display countries’ risk vis-à-vis violent conflicts, allowing for a comprehensive global scan to identify countries at risk of both internal and interstate disputes. To achieve this, it seeks to move beyond existing models and improve our understanding of risk assessment in three ways: (1) It offers a comprehensive definition of risk and risk of conflict, (2) it makes use of a new dataset on conflicts, and (3) it addresses three different dimensions of conflicts, enabling users to identify a country’s individual risk for conflicts over national power, on a subnational level, and in the international sphere. Twenty-two political, security, socio-economic and structural indicators underpin the calculation of conflict risk. Clustered in five pillars or risk areas, they take into account the most recent results of quantitative conflict research as well as expert input from conflict and country practitioners, and are combined in a statistical model to assess the likely conflict intensity over the next 4 years. The statistical analysis was supported by a methodology group of renowned conflict experts. The result is an estimate of countries at risk for highly violent conflicts in the near future, as well as an assessment of the intensity of existing conflicts based on changing structural metrics. These consider the contextual features and risks for each country with regard to its political cohesiveness, international integration, its socio-economic development level, geographical factors, and its security environment. The index provides an intuitive framework for the analysis of a country’s vulnerability and the characteristic features that favour conflict onset and escalation. While the GCRI supports a proactive risk management framework and provides a sound basis for qualitative risk assessment, its data and results reflect the findings of scientific literature and a statistical model and are therefore not to be confused with in-depth analyses by country experts or policy recommendations.JRC.G.2-Global security and crisis managemen