Effects of Reducing Wind-Induced Trajectory Uncertainty on Sector Demand

In this paper, a first step to analyse the effects of reducing the uncertainty of aircraft trajectories on sector demand is presented. The source of uncertainty is wind, forecasted by Ensemble Prediction Systems, which are composed of different possible atmosphere realizations. A trajectory predictor determinesthe routes to be followed by the different flights to reduce the uncertainty of the arrival times. The sector demand is described in terms of entry count, that is, the number of flights entering the sector during a selected time period, which is uncertain because so are the the entry times to the sector. Results are presented for a realistic application, where the dispersion of the entry count isshown to be reduced when the dispersion of the arrival times is also reduced.This work is part of the project TBO-Met. This project has received funding from the SESAR Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 699294 under European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programm