A cross analysis of existing methods for modelling household appliance use

This paper presents a cross-analysis of the existing methods for modelling the use of household appliances and aims to provide insights into modelling approaches for researchers and designers. Five factors regarding appliance use modelling that have a significant impact on the modelling performance are defined: consideration of the intra/inter-household variation, consideration of the influence of socio-demographic conditions, time resolution of the data, quantification of model calibration parameters and applicability to a variety of modelling contexts. Four existing modelling methods commonly used in literature for modelling appliance use are studied to address these factors. Monitored data of 333 multi-family buildings in Japan and a Japanese time use survey are used in the cross-analysis to simulate the switch-on time profiles for the case of washing machines. The design of future research studies (including monitoring strategies, modelling and sample sizes) are discussed to further improve the ability to model home appliance use