Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan and development of a country specific FRAX model

Summary: retrospective and prospective population-based survey in a region of the Republic of Kazakhstan determined the incidence of fractures at the hip, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to enhance fracture risk assessment in Kazakhstan.Objective: this paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in the Republic of Kazakhstan that was used to develop a country specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction.Methods: we carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Taldykorgan in the Republic of Kazakhstan representing approximately 1% of the country’s population. Hip, forearm and humerus fractures were identified retrospectively in 2015 and 2016 from hospital registers and the trauma centre. Hip fractures were prospectively identified in 2017 from the same sources and additionally from primary care data. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Kazakhstan. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models.Results: the difference in hip fracture incidence between the retrospective and prospective survey indicated that approximately 25% of hip fracture cases did not come to hospital attention. The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 11,690 and is predicted to increase by 140% to 28,000 in 2050. Hip fracture incidence was a good predictor of forearm and humeral fractures in men but not in women.Conclusion: the FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Kazakh population and help guide decisions about treatment