Mathematical Modeling of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic Basin

Tropical cyclones are dangerous, so it is useful to be able to predict the number that will occur in a given month. Previous studies have identified four environmental factors that can be connected to tropical cyclogenesis: potential intensity, vertical shear, relative humidity, and absolute vorticity. Here, we use two different approaches in our attempt to find a mathematical model to predict the number of tropical cyclones that form in the North Atlantic Basin. First, we assist Ph.D. student Justin Riley, supervised by Dr. Yuh-Lang Lin of the Department of Physics and the Department of Environmental & Energy Systems at NC A&T, in his research on a genesis potential index to predict monthly variation in tropical cyclogenesis. Second, we attempt to develop a statistical model relating Justin\u27s data on the four environmental factors to the National Hurricane Center\u27s data on the number of tropical cyclones that formed each month from 1979 to 2011 in the North Atlantic Basin. The findings of our study will help us better forecast the number of tropical cyclones that may form each month in the North Atlantic Basin