Explaining the relationships within the enigmatic nexus of dams-development-riparian conflicts: regressing human development and military expenditure on major dams

After a brief period of restrain, states in different regions of the globe have returned to building large dams, using the justification that building such extravagant infrastructures are instrumental in satisfying their respective countries’ water and energy demands and desires. Parallel with this dynamism is the re-emergence of the unsettled debate on the role of dams in the relationships between riparian states. Accordingly, the dichotomy of the Cornucopian’s Cooperation and the Neo-Malthusian’s Water Wars theses has dominated the debate. Similarly, the claimed role of dams in the prosperity and welfare of countries is still a lightning rod of hot debate and disagreements between the pro- and anti-large dam circles. While countries are spending billions of dollars on building dams, it is crucial to re-examine the effects of these giant structures on development and on the relationships of riparian states from a different perspective.Moving away from the conventional measurements of economic growth, this study looks at the role of large dams on the Human Development status of people. In addition, the study scrutinizes the role of dams in the relationship between riparian states through measuring their annual military expenditure. These relationships are measured by applying multiple regression analysis. Subsequently, the study examines whether increasing military expenditure affects the Human Development status of riparian states by diverting and depleting vital resources from sectors that are crucial for the welfare and development of the people. In addition to the main study variables, the study has identified a number of economic (Annual GDP Growth Rate), conflict-related (Inter-State Conflicts and Intra-State Conflicts), political (Legislative Index of Electoral Competitiveness, Executive Index of Electoral Competitiveness, and Corruption Perception Index), energy-related (Access to Electricity, Fossil Fuel Consumption, and Energy Consumption per Capita), and water scarcity-related (Water Stress Index and Freshwater Dependency Ratio) indicators as control variables. Descriptively, the study found that 21st century dams are larger in their height and respective reservoir areas on an unprecedented scale. However, the average capacity of these dams is compromised. Their average capacity is less than those dams that were built during the 1970s. This incompatibility between their unprecedented height with their average capacity is due to the unsuitable terrains that these dams are built on. Major dams of the 21st century embank shallow, expansive, and unsuitable terrains for water storage.Inferentially, the study revealed that demands to provide water and energy security are not the main drivers behind building major dams. On the contrary, states hold the process of building dams as tools to maintain the aggregate growth of their economies. They only resort to build dams when their economic growth is moving in a positive trajectory. This is the model that was implemented in the United States during the 1930s; building dams to create employment and to further boost the recovering economic growth that was hit by the devastating effects of the Great Depression.Although the study did not find any correlation between building dams and conflicts among riparian states, it did reveal that building dams negatively affects Human Development. The study concludes that building major dams neither causes conflict between riparian states, nor does it contribute to the Human Development status of the people. On the contrary, stakeholders at global and national levels are financially benefiting from the dam industry. These stakeholders strategically utilize nationalistic, economic, and even green-initiative discourses and value-systems in order to justify the excessive expenditure and the overburdening foreign financial deals required to build these dams. As the dam industry continues to expand its exploitative reach around the world, wreaking havoc on local populations and the environment, this study is an attempt to scrutinize the issue through a different, more unconventional lens. The findings of this study illustrate the need to further explore the existing economic and political dynamics between relevant global and international entities and domestic actors within the large dam industry.Ph.D.Includes bibliographical reference