Nonmetropolitan Population Trends: Twenty-first Century Updates

Population trends in the nonmetropolitan counties of the United States continue to be erratic. This study used 2008 population estimates to make comparisons of 2000-2008 population changes with those of the decades of the 1980s and 1990s. Findings showed that population changes during the early years of the 21st century were more reminiscent of the 1980s than the 1990s, as overall population growth was minimal and the number of counties losing population exceeded the number of counties with population growth. It appears that the first decade of the 21st century can be labeled as the “Rural Rebound Reversal” decade. The variable with the strongest relationship to population growth was a natural amenity scale. Throughout the study period, counties with more extensive amenity resources were much more likely to have population growth than counties lacking such amenity resources. Counties with more extensive urban influence also have more positive trends than other counties. The implications of these findings are discussed