Identifying Predictors of New Teacher Retention

Identifying Predictors of New Teacher Retention Abstract High teacher turnover is a financial and instructional problem in schools on the national, state, and district level. Because the greatest proportion of teacher attrition (not related to retirement) and turnover occurs in the first five years of beginning a teaching career, retaining new teachers is critical to the effective use of shrinking education budgets and bringing about instructional stability, particularly in high-poverty and high-minority schools and districts. The study utilized restricted-use data from the 2007-2012 Beginning Teacher Longitudinal Study (BTLS) to identify predictors of teachers remaining in their initial teaching assignment into the second year of teaching, as well as remaining in the teaching profession into their fifth year of teaching. The 2007-2012 BTLS collected five years of perceptual data from approximately 2,000 teachers identified as first year teachers in the 2007-2008 school year. Using IBM SPSS Complex Samples (version 24) software, multinomial logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of new teacher retention. Grounded in Herzberg’s Two Factor Theory and Bandura’s Social Cognitive Theory, elements of mentoring practices, a culture of collaboration, and supportive principal practices were explored to identify factors leading to job satisfaction, increased efficacy, and increased retention. The author found several predictors of new teacher retention and offered suggestions for induction. A nurturing model of comprehensive new teacher induction including effective mentoring practices within a collaborative community, all supported by a highly effective principal focused on building the capacity of all teachers, promises to accelerate the effectiveness of new teachers, build a sense of efficacy in practice, and retain new teachers through the critical fifth year