A Stochastic Activity-Based Approach for forecasting Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings

International audienceBuilding occupants are considered as a major source of uncertainty in energy modeling nowadays. Yet, industrial energy simulation tools often account for occupant behavior through some predefined scenarios and fixed consumption profiles which yield to unrealistic and inaccurate predictions. In this paper, a stochastic activity-based approach for forecasting occupant-related energy consumption in residential buildings is proposed. First, the model is exposed together with its different variables. Second, a direct application of the model on the domestic activity “washing laundry” is performed. A number of simulations are performed and their results are presented and discussed. Finally, the model is validated by confronting simulation results to real measured data