Landscape organisation and multifunctionality in the Beauce plain at local and regional scales A scenario analysis with the CLUE-S model and CHLOE tool

Colloque organisé par la Wageningen University Research Colloque organisé par la Wageningen University Research This paper analyses the potential effect of local agri-environmental policies in multifunctionality promotion on a rural landscape, with a two-scales modelling framework: a regional scale for food demand and a local scale for land-use driving forces. The framework has been designed in four steps. First, the relative influence of the driving factors on the current land-use pattern has been analysed. Two scenarios are designed that vary the external demand for the total land-use, and alter more or less quickly the specific location factors that drive the landscape pattern. The first scenario considers a trend evolution of the external and internal driving forces. The second scenario relies both on totally decoupled farm subsidies and unregulated housing growth. In both scenarios a local agrienvironmental policy is introduced and we measure the gap of its consequences with the previous scenarios landscape pattern. The third steps consist in a modelling exercise that analyses the likely outcome of each scenario on the development of land-use patterns at local scale. Last, these landscape patterns have been translated into ecological indexes that assess the effect of the policy options on the multifunctionality of the local landscape