Effects Of Wait Times And Bridge Tolls On Personal Vehicle Border Crossings Into El Paso

Wait times at international ports of entry (POE) increase overall travel costs and negatively affect establishments at the border by raising costs and reducing efficiency. This study employs linear transfer function analysis to model northbound personal vehicle traffic flows across three international bridges that link Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico and El Paso, Texas, USA. The analysis attempts to build upon prior regional studies that examine the effects of tolls, exchange rates, and economic conditions on cross-border traffic volumes. This is done by incorporating a fairly unique data set of wait times into the equation specifications. Empirical results confirm inverse relationships between traffic flows and tolls, as well as between tolls and wait time, at each bridge. Substitution effects between structures are also observed. For the tolled ports of entry, dollar-equivalent toll estimates of the wait time effects are approximated using bridge-specific coefficients. A regional average of the cost effect is used to calculate a similar estimate for the un-tolled bridge. As value of time measures, wait time toll equivalents are used to estimate time-related crossing costs at each POE. To further assess model reliabilities, out-of-sample simulations are also utilized. U-statistics and error-differential regressions are deployed as tools for comparing LTF accuracies relative to those of random walk benchmarks