Impact of Climate and Soil Variability on Crop Water Productivity and Food Security of Irrigated Agriculture in Northern Togo (West Africa)

West Africa is subject to frequent yield losses due to erratic rainfall and degraded soils. At the same time, its population is expected to double by 2050. This situation is alarming in northern Togo, a West African dry savannah area, where rainfed maize is a staple food. Thus, it is necessary to improve agricultural productivity, e.g., by evaluating and introducing alternative irrigation management strategies, which may be implemented in this region. For this purpose, the present investigation focused on evaluating the potential of deficit and supplemental irrigation, as well as assessing the impact of climate and soil variability on maize yield under irrigated agriculture using irrigation optimisation strategies in northern Togo. The Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation (OCCASION) framework was adapted and employed to address the research objectives. It involves: (i) a weather generator for simulating long-term climate time series; (ii) the AquaCrop model, which was utilised to simulate the irrigation during the growing periods and the maize yield response to given irrigation management strategies; and (iii) a problem-specific algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply. Five irrigation management strategies viz. T1: no irrigation (NI), T2: controlled deficit irrigation (CDI) and T3: full irrigation (FI) in the wet season, T4: controlled deficit irrigation (CDI) and T5: full irrigation (FI) in the dry season were assessed regarding their impact on maize yield in northern Togo. The results showed high variability in rainfall during the wet season, which led to substantial variability in the expected yield for NI. This variability was significantly lessened when optimised supplemental irrigation management strategies (CDI or FI) were applied. This also holds for the irrigation scenarios under the dry season. Finally, these findings were validated by an irrigation field experiment conducted at an agricultural research institute in northern Togo. Under a moderate level of deficit irrigation during the vegetative and reproductive growth stages, the above-ground biomass and the maize grain yield were reduced. However, a moderate level of deficit irrigation during the vegetative growth stage could result in similar values of water productivity to that of fully irrigated treatment. It was found that, based on the values of the statistical indicators, AquaCrop has accurately simulated the maize grain yield for all the irrigation strategies evaluated. The results of this study revealed that climate variability might engender a higher variability in the maize yields of northern Togo than soil variability does. Large- and smallscale water harvesting, access to groundwater, and irrigation infrastructures would be required for implementing the irrigation management strategies assessed in this study.:Declaration iii Declaration of Conformity v Dedication vii Acknowledgements ix Abstract xi Table of Contents xv List of Figures xvii List of Tables xix List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xxi 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background and Problem Statement 1 1.1.1 Global Fresh and Agricultural Water Use 1 1.1.2 Erratic Rainfall, Rising Temperatures, and Soil fertility depletion in West Africa 2 1.1.3 Transboundary Water Issues in West Africa 3 1.1.4 Agriculture and Water Use in Togo 3 1.2 Objectives of the Study 4 2. State of the Art 6 2.1 Relevant Agroecosystems, Farming Systems and Irrigation Management in West Africa 6 2.2 Key Performance Indicators: Water productivity and Food Security 8 2.3 Common Approaches Used to Evaluate Crop Water Productivity 9 2.4 Key production Factors: Climate, Soil and Management 9 2.5 Crop Yield Modelling 12 2.6 Integrated Modelling 13 3. Novel Framework for Optimising Irrigation Systems in West Africa 15 3.1 Model-based Sensitivity Analysis of Climate and Management Impact on Crop Water Productivity, Water Demand and Food Security 15 3.2 Experimental Validation of the Farm Model and Management Strategies, Soil Data Analysis and Modelling 17 3.3 Joint Stochastic Analysis of the Impact of Climate and Soil Variability on Crop Water Productivity and Food Security 19 4. Overview of Publications 21 4.1 Potential of Deficit and Supplemental Irrigation under Climate Variability in Northern Togo, West Africa 21 4.2 Impact of Irrigation Strategies on Maize (Zea mays L.) Production in the Savannah Region of Northern Togo (West Africa) 22 4.3 Impact of climate and soil variability on maize (Zea mays L.) yield under full and deficit irrigation in the savannah region of northern Togo, West Africa 23 5. Conclusion and Outlook 26 References 28 A. Selected Publications of the Author 37 A.1 Potential of Deficit and Supplemental Irrigation under Climate Variability in Northern Togo, West Africa 39 A.2 Impact of Irrigation Strategies on Maize (Zea mays L.) Production in the Savannah Region of Northern Togo (West Africa) 61 A.3 Impact of Climate and Soil Variability on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield under Full and Deficit Irrigation in the Savannah Region of Northern Togo, West Africa 81 B. Histograms of distributions of the expected maize yield in northern Togo (scenarios in the third paper) 12