Estimated 5-year number needed to treat to prevent cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization with angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibition vs standard therapy for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: an analysis of data from the PARADIGM-HF trial

Importance: The addition of receptor-neprilysin inhibition to standard therapy, including a renin-angiotensin system blocker, has been demonstrated to improve outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) compared with standard therapy alone. The long-term absolute risk reduction from angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) therapy, and whether it merits widespread use among diverse subpopulations, has not been well described. Objective: To calculate estimated 5-year number needed to treat (NNT) values overall and for different subpopulations for the Prospective Comparison of ARNI with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor (ACEI) to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: Overall and subpopulation 5-year NNT values were estimated for different end points using data from PARADIGM-HF, a double-blind, randomized trial of sacubitril-valsartan vs enalapril. This multicenter, international study included 8399 men and women with HFrEF (ejection fraction, ≤40%). The study began in December 2009 and ended in March 2014. Analyses began in March 2018. Interventions: Random assignment to sacubitril-valsartan or enalapril. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality. Results: The final cohort of 8399 individuals included 1832 women (21.8%) and 5544 white individuals (66.0%), with a mean (SD) age of 63.8 (11.4) years. The 5-year estimated NNT for the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization with ARNI therapy incremental to ACEI therapy in the overall cohort was 14. The 5-year estimated NNT values were calculated for different clinically relevant subpopulations and ranged from 12 to 19. The 5-year estimated NNT for all-cause mortality in the overall cohort with ARNI incremental to ACEI was 21, with values ranging from 16 to 31 among different subgroups. Compared with imputed placebo, the 5-year estimated NNT for all-cause mortality with ARNI was 11. The 5-year estimated NNT values were also calculated for other HFrEF therapies compared with controls from landmark trials for all-cause mortality and were found to be 18 for ACEI, 24 for angiotensin receptor blockers, 8 for β-blockers, 15 for mineralocorticoid antagonists, 14 for implantable cardioverter defibrillator, and 14 for cardiac resynchronization therapy. Conclusions and Relevance: The 5-year estimated NNT with ARNI therapy incremental to ACEI therapy overall and for clinically relevant subpopulations of patients with HFrEF are comparable with those for well-established HF therapeutics. These data further support guideline recommendations for use of ARNI therapy among eligible patients with HFrEF