Modeling the Size of the Mutual Fund Industry in Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

The rapid growth and development of the mutual fund industry throughout the world stimulated vast contemporary studies focusing on a wide range of issues predominantly of microeconomic character, such as fund performance, timing ability, fees and fund flows, thus leaving determinants and attributes of mutual fund industry development beyond their research. The rare relevant studies predict that development of the mutual fund industry depends on a number of factors among which the predominant role belongs to development of the economic and financial systems, and quality of governance and regulatory basis. One essential condition of validity of this prediction is that it is based upon a sample of developed economies, thus leaving a space for the likelihood that under condition of developing or middle-income economies some expectations may substantially deviate from the predication. This paper aims to reevaluate the significance of the impact of individual macro- and microeconomic factors, which were identified in previous studies, on size of asset under management in the sample of high- and middle-income economies of Central and Eastern Europe by means of regressing the total size of the mutual fund industry and size of its separate components, such as equity, fixed income and money market asset management over a number of independent variables. The obtained results indicate that out of a wide range of factors, the high explanatory power of which was stressed by earlier studies, only a small group of them turned out to be significant in our research. In particular, it was found that the size of the CEE mutual fund industry in general and the sizes of its particular segments respond positively on increase of country openness to trade and capital inflows, development and stability of local financial and capital markets, improvement of quality of governance and regulatory basis. Also some controversial evidence was obtained on the role of change in government indebtedness for explaining the size of the mutual fund industry – in general, there is a significantly positive impact of a decrease of central government debt on the size of CEE asset management, however its sign is not consistent across all subcategories of funds. Although the chosen sample does not cover as large a number of countries as previous studies, it provides brief insight into the CEE mutual fund industry, documenting important country and regional characteristics