Recruit Quality and College Football Team Performance in the CFP Era

Recruiting is a major component of college football. Teams compete for recruits since the quality of a recruiting class contributes to on-field success. Previous studies have investigated the relationship between recruit quality and on-field performance and have found that a positive relationship exists. This thesis contributes to the literature by empirically examining how recruit quality affects team performance in the College Football Playoff (CFP) era using various measures of success. Panel data econometric models are used to determine the effect of recruits between schools, as well as within both conferences and schools on team performance. It also considers the validity of the use of an ex-ante star recruit rating as well as the hypothesis that team success each year will affect future success since high quality recruits are expected to choose teams with a history of winning. The results show that a direct relationship exists between recruit quality and team performance. Moreover, the results support that the ex-ante star rating is a predictor of athletic performance at the collegiate level and that high-quality recruits affect revenues generated by football programs