Tourism and safety in Europe

Trendovi razvoja turizma se ogledaju u trendovima prisutnima u suvremenom društvu. S druge strane, sigurnost, ili manjak iste, karakterizira pojedina društva i oblikuje ekonomske i društvene trendove. Zbog navedenog, može se pretpostaviti postojanje povezanosti između sigurnosti i turizma, što je i tema ovoga rada. Razrada teme je podijeljena u dvije cjeline. U prvoj cjelini, teorijskoj razradi, prezentirane su dosadašnje znanstvene spoznaje o međusobnom odnosu sigurnosti i turizma, dok je u drugoj cjelini rada predstavljeno istraživanje čiji su rezultati temeljeni na obradi sekundarnih i primarnih podataka. Teorijska razrada teme obrađuje tri veća područja: suvremene trendove u turizmu i sigurnosti; utjecaj sigurnosti i percepiranih rizika na destinacijski imidž i donošenje turističkih odluka; i, konačno, upravljanje krizama i katastrofama u turizmu, odnosno krizni menadžment u turizmu. Predstavljeni su kvantitativni trendovi rasta turizma, pri čemu je postavljeno pitanje o održivosti tog rasta i prezentirana teorija o održivom turizmu kao facilitatoru mira i sigurnosti. Nadalje, dan je pregled kvantitativnih trendova u sigurnosti, s naglaskom na terorizam. Konačno, pregled kvalitativnih trendova u turizmu i sigurnosti je razrađen kroz političke, ekonomske, okolišne, tehnološke, demografske i društvene aspekte razvoja sigurnosti i turizma. U drugom području teorijske razrade teme definiran je pojam percipiranog rizika u turizmu i njegovih dimenzija, a zatim je opisan proces donošenja turističkih odluka s obzirom na međusobni odnos destinacijskog imidža i percipiranog rizika i njegovih formativnih faktora. U nastavku je detaljnije pojašnjen utjecaj pojedinih formativnih faktora percipiranog rizika (atributa turista, prethodnog turističkog iskustva, informacija iz okoline) na donošenje turističkih odluka. Poseban osvrt je dan na donošenje turističkih odluka o korištenju usluga posrednika u turizmu. U trećem području teorijske razrade teme predstavljen je radni okvir za upravljanje krizama i katastrofama i opisane tri faze upravljanja krizama i katastrofama (strateško planiranje, implementacija strategija i oporavak i organizacijsko učenje). Ukazano je na potrebu suradnje pri kriznom menadžmentu i prezentiran model alokacije odgovornosti među dionicima na razini destinacije. Konačno, predstavljene su strategije upravljanja kriznim marketinškim komunikacijama. U drugoj cjelini rada, obrađeni su sekundarni podaci o razni sigurnosti (iskazani kroz Globalni indeks mira – GPI) i o pokazateljima turističkog prometa (broju međunarodnih turističkih dolazaka, ostvarenim prihodima od međunarodnog turizma i udjelu prihoda od međunarodnog turizma u ukupnom izvozu) za 41 državu s područja Europe i Mediterana u razdoblju od 2008. do 2017. godine. Primjenom Granger testa kauzalnosti potvrđeno je postojanje učinka dinamičkih trendova u sigurnosti (GPI vrijednosti s odmakom) na trendove broja ostvarenih međunarodnih turističkih dolazaka u većini promatranih država (24 od ukupno 41 države). Konačno, provedeno je ispitivanje o razvoju i implementaciji mjera i strategija unutar okvira upravljanja krizama i katastrofama od strane posrednika u turizmu. Za prikupljanje podataka korištena je znanstvena metoda anketiranja. U istraživanju je sudjelovao 41 ispitanik. Ispitanici su turističke agencije, isključivo on – line turističke agencije i turoperatori, većinom s područja Hrvatske, no zabilježen je i manji broj odgovora s područja Alžira, Austrije, Češke Republike, Irske, Islanda, Izraela, Nizozemske, Norveške, Rusije i Slovenije. Većina ispitanika je iskazala slaganje s tvrdnjom da sigurnost u destinaciji utječe na turističku potražnju. Nadalje, prethodno iskustvo s krizom ili katastrofom je imalo više od polovine ispitanika. Unatoč tome, tek manji broj posrednika u turizmu razvija i implementira mjere i strategije upravljanja krizama i katastrofama. Većina ih nije upoznata s tečajevima kriznog menadžmenta. Prilikom susreta s krizama i katastrofama, često posežu za davanjem popusta i osiguravanjem dodatne vrijednosti za usluge koje pružaju. No, te mjere ne moraju nužno osigurati pozitivne poslovne rezultate. Sigurnost je u odnosu prema turizmu često smatrana kao condicio sine qua non. Ipak, pri proučavanju tog odnosa treba u obzir uzeti specifičnosti pojedinih destinacija. Također, potrebno osvijestiti turističke posrednike o važnosti holističkog pristupa pri upravljanju krizama i katastrofama.Tourism growth trends are often reflected in the trends that are present in the modern society. On the other hand, safety (security), or lack thereof, can be considered as one of the characteristics of the economic and social trends in the society. When both statements are taken into the consideration, it can be assumed that there is a link between safety and tourism. That link is the research subject of this thesis. The subject development is broke down into two parts. In the first part, theoretical elaboration, a review and synthesis of scientific and up to date literature – based findings about safety and tourism relationship is given. In the second part, a study conducted by analyzing both secondary and primary collected data is presented. Theoretical discussion of the subject covers three major domains: contemporary tourism and safety and security trends; influences of the safety and risk perceptions on the destination image and tourists’ decision making process; and, finally, crisis and disaster management in tourism. Quantitative trends of tourism growth were presented, while the possibility of sustainable tourism growth was questioned. In addition, the theory of sustainable tourism as peace and safety facilitator was discussed. Additionally, a synthesis of quantitative safety and tourism trends was given, with an emphasis on terrorism. Finally, a review of qualitative trends in tourism and security has been elaborated through political, economic, environmental, technological, demographic and social aspects of security and tourism. In the second theoretical discussion domain, the concept of risk perception in tourism and its dimensions has been defined, which was followed by description of decision – making process in tourism, while taking the destination image and perceived risks (and its formative factors) in regard. The impact of the individual formative factors of the perceived risk (tourist attributes, previous tourist experience, communicated information) on the decision – making process in tourism was explained. Finally, attention was given to tourist decisions regarding organized way of travel (via tourism intermediaries). In the third and final domain, the framework for crisis and disaster management was presented. Three phases of crisis and disaster management (strategic planning, strategy implementation and recovery and organizational learning) were further explained. Emphasis was placed on the need for crisis management co-operation. The model of destination stakeholders responsibilities was described. Finally, crisis communication strategies were outlined. In the second part of the paper, secondary data on safety levels (Global Peace Index - GPI) and tourism growth indicators (number of international tourist arrivals, international tourism receipts and share of international tourism receipts in total exports) for 41 European countries and countries from Mediterranean area in the period from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed. By running the Granger causality tests for each country, it was concluded that there is evidence that lagged values of GPI time series provide significant information about international tourist arrivals time series. It can be said that for most of the countries included in the research (24 out of 41) the safety and security level has a significant impact on the number of international tourist arrivals. Finally, a research on the development and implementation of crisis and disaster management activities and strategies by tourism intermediaries was carried out. Data was collected via on – line questionnaire. 41 respondents participated. Respondents were tourist agencies, exclusively on - line tourist agencies and tour operators, mostly from Croatia. There were also few respondents from Algeria, Austria, the Czech Republic, Ireland, Iceland, Israel, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia and Slovenia. Most of the respondents agreed with the statement that safety influences the level of tourism demand for the destination. Furthermore, more than half of the respondents reported previous experience with crisis or disasters. However, only a small number of tourism intermediaries have been developing or implementing crisis and disaster management activities and strategies. Most of them said that they are unfamiliar with crisis management courses. When encountering crises and catastrophes, they often resort to price reduction and strategy of providing additional value to their services. But these measures do not necessarily have to provide positive business results. When contemplating tourism, safety is often considered as condicio sine qua non. However, while discussing that relationship, characteristics of each tourist destination should be taken into the consideration. It is also necessary to raise tourism intermediaries’ awareness about the importance of a holistic approach to crisis and disasters management