Identifying employment-intensive export sectors in South Africa's service industry

MCom (International Trade), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015Unemployment within the South African economy has indicated to be a prominent issue with an official unemployment rate of 25.2% in the year 2013 (Statistics South Africa, 2013). The South African government released the National Growth Path that is primarily focused on creating stable economic growth, in order to create jobs as well as eradicate inequality. This is followed by the Industrial Policy Action Plan 2 (IPAP2) document which includes a policy package to facilitate the specific industries that are identified for job creation (DTI, 2012). Thus, employment creation has become a real concern within the South African context. The highest percentage of total employment has remained within the services industry since 2004, at a rate above 60%. This is double the combined employment within agriculture and industry, with agriculture at 5% and industry at 25% of total employment. Thus the services industry has contributed to the highest amount of employment in South Africa. The exports of services have grown consistently since the year 2004. The largest exporter within the services industry is the travel sector, with substantial exports which peaked at 9 billion dollars in 2013. When analysing the remaining service sectors within the South African economy, it indicates that there can be a greater deal of growth in exports, with the majority of service sectors exporting less than 1 billion dollars. Export expansion can be a basis to growth in employment creation, if policy can specifically be focused towards it. Because of the demand for methods and strategy for employment creation, this study reviewed the literature regarding the effects of export expansion, as well as research methods to identify labour intensive sectors and their spill-over effects. Studies show that the increases in exports have a predominantly positive effect on employment. Furthermore, these studies also found prominent inter-linkages of services sectors within the economy. The aim of this study was to determine the most employment-intensive services sectors and their linkages with other sectors within the South African economy, in order to make recommendations for policy makers towards sustainable economic growth and job creation in the services sector. The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) used in this study model generally explains through a general table of a region or nation, by listing the regional or national economy accounting data within a square table. Thus the main goal of the SAM model was to form a comprehensive economic-wide database, which included information about all the productive activities in the economy, as well as incorporating unproductive institutions and markets, such as capital markets, factor markets, government, households and the rest of the world. The above model can thus be used to determine the link between a specific sectors expansion and the labour intensity of that sector. Furthermore, the model is not only limited to measure labour intensity, but it can also measure the specific GDP and production spill-over effects for a specific sector within the economy. Therefore, the study could analyse the spill-over effects of specific services sectors, as well as the possible employment effect it could have throughout the South African economy. The results of the study could then also be used as a strategy for export expansion and employment creation. There is currently no policy focused strategy for the services industry, which could become beneficial. The first step for the empirical analysis was to identify the services sectors which are tradable/ exportable. The following SAM services sectors are more tradable/ exportable than others in commercial terms, and thus they will be used in the analysis of this study: - Building and Construction - Trade - Accommodation - Communication - Finance and Insurance - Real Estate - Business Services - Community, Social and Personal Services In the second part of the study, the objective was to determine the most employment-intensive services sectors and its linkages with other sectors within the South African economy, in order to make recommendations for policy makers towards sustainable economic growth and job creation in the services sector. The results of this study indicated that an increase in the exports of services in South Africa has a definite impact on employment in the following sectors: - Production o Accommodation, Real Estate and Building and Construction - GDP o Accommodation, Real Estate and Building and Construction - Labour o Community, Social and Personal Services, Accommodation, and Business ServicesMaster