Sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios.

Short term projections of the sardine resource are considered under alternative constant catch scenarios. Baseline results suggest that 2019 catch and bycatch scenarios totalling up to 23 000t would not have a substantial negative 1-year impact on the population. However, results are sensitive to model assumptions and projections are more pessimistic if greater west-south movement is assumed or if the actual population structure in November 2018 consisted of fewer recruits and more adults than was estimated by the November 2018 survey length frequency