Measuring financial stress in Turkey

This study examines episodes of financial stress and develops a financial stress index for the Turkish economy for the 1997-2010 period. We consider various variables that summarize different aspects of financial conditions in the economy to gauge financial stress. We construct the index and show that financial stress affects economic activity significantly. Specifically, the index is a leading indicator of economic activity in Turkey. We then discuss how information provided by the financial stress index can be used to fine tune macroeconomic policy. © 2012 Society for Policy Modeling