Future scenarios in the automotive industry as a result of the social impact of industry 4.0 in the period up to 2033

With increasing human population growth, rising GDP levels, and more affluent lifestyles, the human race is progressively consuming, leading to an ever-increasing demand for renewable and non- renewable resources. The problem of resource scarcity is, therefore, emerging because it is questionable whether economic growth in a world with finite natural resources can be sustained. One of the objectives of this work is to analyse the potential of industrial 4.0 applications to achieve a more sustainable South African automotive industry. Even if the economy is still locked up in a system that favours the linear traditional production model, stricter environmental standards, a scarcity of resources and changing consumer expectations will force entities to find alternatives. New technologies can be used to trace materials through the value chain and to track the status of the product during its life cycle. Companies are beginning to capitalize on the potential of emerging technologies to more sustainably reorganise production, services, business models or entire organizations. What is certain is that many expect that the fourth industrial revolution will have a substantial effect on jobs worldwide as advanced robotics, artificial intelligence and automation are becoming more influential. Digitisation has a full impact on both the automotive industry and society. Automation we’ve seen in the past has intensified. Digitisation has an ongoing and unprecedented effect on the operation of firms. It impacts all aspects from development to manufacturing and logistics and challenges business models and changes the place of work and the way we work. For this reason, a well- developed infrastructure and skilled workforce are key factors in transforming the industry successfully. From a South African point of view, qualification is a key challenge for industry 4.0 and requires decisive action. The challenge of skills in the manufacturing sector is growing as the industry becomes more digital. The plans of manufacturers to drive productivity improvements and capitalise on the fourth industrial revolution could be eroded because the education system is struggling to provide the right quantity and quality of skills to meet the needs of the sector. Manufacturers will need to keep investing in training current employees to keep up with new processes in line with company needs. One major challenge is to increase the digital skills of current and, in particular, older workers, by creating an offer of digital training. The research study aimed to develop insights into the future of the South African automotive industry by constructing two scenarios towards 2033: Worst case; South African automotive industry did little to change current linear traditional production mode trends in 2033; This narrative has seen the sector fall into the nightmare of its own dystonia. Best case; South African automotive is a success in 2033; The South African automotive industry finds its competitive global niche. And even with breakthroughs in robotics and artificial intelligence, there is a major disruption in employment throughout the world, South Africa has succeeded in creating a small but intelligent base for youth who can recognise and exploit opportunities on the global market. Industry 4.0 has a high potential to ensure more sustainable production methods