Estimating abundance and growth rates in a wild mountain gorilla population

Abstract Monitoring population size and growth over time is vital for the conservation of endangered species. Mountain gorillas Gorilla beringei beringei remain in two small populations that span the borders of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda. Each population contains two subpopulations that receive differing levels of protection: the monitored groups are visited daily by park staff and researchers and can be counted by sight, whereas the number and growth rate of unmonitored gorillas must be estimated indirectly. Here, we re-analyze published data from a survey in 2010 combined with new results from a survey conducted during two sampling occasions in 2015 and 2016 to estimate mountain gorilla abundance and growth in the Virunga Massif between 2010 and 2016. Using genetic analysis of non-invasively collected samples and two capture?mark?recapture estimates, we estimated that the 186 detected genotypes represented 221 (95% credible interval: 204?243) to 251 (205?340) unmonitored gorillas in 2016. Together with the 418 monitored gorillas, the overall population of the Virunga Massif thus reached 639 (622?661) to 669 (623?758) individuals. We estimated the growth of the entire Virunga Massif population at about 3% per year, but determined that the growth of the monitored gorillas (4.4%) mainly drove that increase. In contrast, the trend of the unmonitored subpopulation could not be determined with confidence because both models provided 95% CI that encompassed zero: 0.5% per year (?0.7% to +1.7%) and 1.1% (?2.7% to +4.4%). While the overall growth rate represents a rare success story for primate conservation, our results highlight the need for greater protection of unmonitored gorillas