Conflict Resilience

Although large-scale wars and interstate conflicts have almost disappeared, intrastate conflicts remain widespread and result in a high number of victims. During the last ten years, the number of fatalities was substantially higher than in the previous decade. Though these conflicts take place outside the borders of the EU, they can generate important direct and indirect effects. Moreover, they are connected to climate change, can lead to various disasters, geopolitical effects, or material supply disruptions. The concept of resilience has recently gained ground as a framework for addressing contemporary global threats. It has also become the key principle in the EU’s external action. One of its key building blocks is the modelling and monitoring of conflict risk to allow early action. Conflict resilience refers to the capacity of a state to resist a drift towards violence contrary to the structural conditions prevailing (pre-conflict resilience). It also includes the response of a state in the presence of a conflict (post-conflict resilience). Evaluating the pre-conflict resilience of states can provide insights into conflict aversion or enable a warning for the eruption of violence. On the other hand, the study of postconflict resilience may unveil the adaptive and transformative mechanisms that can be followed by other war-torn countries. Climate change and conflicts are closely related. For example, climate change exacerbates current conflict drivers like food insecurity, competition for water and land resources, poverty and internal displacement of people. Adaptation and mitigation policies may lead to new regulations or infrastructures (like new hydropower reservoirs) which can generate tensions and eventually conflicts. Finally, conflict-torn countries are unable to invest in adaptation strategies, which makes them even more vulnerable to climate change effects.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen