Improving identification of HT-ATES performance drivers and -barriers

High temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (HT-ATES) can potentially solve the mismatch between heat supply and demand. It can provide a large scale seasonal heat storage solution. Thereby it enables an increase in full load hours of the base heat source, which can benefit project performance on both costs and emissions. However, the limited number of successful pilot projects indicates the technology has not escaped its state of infancy. There is a gap from concept to implementation, which is signified by the disagreement of experts on performance drivers and barriers of HT-ATES. This research aims to narrow the described knowledge gap, by improving identification of HT-ATES performance drivers and barriers. Thereby it strives to improve decision making of HT-ATES implementation, and further enhance future HT-ATES application in heating projects. The broad scope of research demands both a diagnostic and design-orientated approach, and fits seamlessly with a multi-criteria decision analysis. The analysis entails the stages of creating, evaluating, comparing and ranking of case-specific scenarios. Parametric variation changes the conditions for HT-ATES implementation across the scenarios. A simulation model is developed and connected to a groundwater model to apply the parametric variation, to create the different scenarios, and consequently to produce the quantitative information for further evaluation. During the stages of creating, evaluating, comparing and ranking, the methodology systematically produces new results on the opportunities and risks introduced by HT-ATES, and additionally on the HT-ATES performance drivers and barriers. The results show that HT-ATES enables the opportunity of improving project performance with respect to the internal rate of return and emissions. Groundwater impact remains the greatest risk, but it can be minimised with smart decision making. To support the decision maker and to overcome the risk of groundwater impact, the research proposes several performance-enhancing, non-explicit guidelines. The guidelines focus on realising an HT-ATES implementation, where project performance with respect to internal rate of return, emissions and groundwater impact are balanced. Thereby they explain the major HT-ATES performance drivers and barriers. The guidelines are summarised below. The decision maker is recommended to .. 1. .. minimise the uncertainty, through thorough subsurface characterization before implementation. Secondly, to focus on aquifers with a minimum depth of 200 [m] and a minimum hydraulic conductivity of 5 [m/d] 2. .. assure network return temperatures during peak demand are below expected storage temperatures 3. .. not consider project life-times exceeding 20 years 4. .. assure yearly maximum base source heat production is always lower than yearly consumer heat demand 5. .. to strive for a flat demand curve and apply peak-shaving, by means of, for example, variable heat prices Currently, the guidelines have the purpose of giving direction to the decision maker, but they will become more explicit once the methodology is improved, and the uncertainty and number of assumptions in the model is decreased.Electrical Engineering | Sustainable Energy Technolog