The impact of urban spatial structure on travel demand in the United States

PDFResearch PaperUrban transitUrban developmentCity planningMode choiceTravel demandTravel behaviorPublic transitUnited StatesWorld BankBento, Antonio M.Cropper, Maureen L.Mobarak, Ahmed MushfiqVinha, KatjaNTL-PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION-PUBLIC TRANSPORTATIONNTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Land UseNTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Travel DemandNTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-SurveysUS Transportation CollectionAttempts to limit urban growth or to change its form are motivated by three concerns-to preserve open space and foster urban development that is more aesthetically appealing, to reduce the cost of providing public services, and to reduce dependence on the automobile and the externalities associated with automobile use-especially air pollution and congestion-that have accompanied urban sprawl. This naturally raises the question: how does urban form-whether measured by the spatial distribution of population or employment or the public transit network-affect vehicle ownership and the number of miles driven by households in the United States? This paper combines measures of urban form and public transit supply for 114 urbanized areas with the 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey to address two questions: (1) How do measures of urban form including city shape, road density, the spatial distribution of population and jobs-housing balance affect the annual miles driven and commute mode choices of U.S. households? (2) How does the supply of public transportation (annual route miles supplied and availability of transit stops) affect miles driven and commute mode choice? This analysis shows that jobs-housing balance, population centrality and rail miles supplied significantly reduce the probability of driving to work in cities with some rail transit. Population centrality and jobs-housing balance have a significant impact on annual household vehicle miles traveled (VMTs), as do city shape, road density, and (in rail cities), annual rail route miles supplied. The elasticity of VMTs with respect to each variable is small, on the order of 0.10-0.20 in absolute value; however, changing several measures of form simultaneously can reduce annual VMTs significantly. Moving sample households from a city with the characteristics of Atlanta to a city with the characteristics of Boston reduces annual VMTs by 25%. References, appendices, tables, 54 p