System of activity-based models for Portland, Oregon

PDFTech ReportDOT-T-99-02Computer modelsTraffic modelsTraffic forecastingTravel demandDecision makingMobilitySchedulingPortland (Oregon)Travel Model Improvement Program (U.S.)Bowman, JohnMetro Regional Government (Or.)Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge SystematicsUnited States. Dept. of Transportation. Technology Sharing DivisionTravel Model Improvement Program (U.S.)NTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Transit Planning and PolicyNTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Travel DemandNTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Management SystemsUS Transportation CollectionThis report demonstrates that activity-based travel demand models are currently feasible and can replace traditional trip-based travel four-step demand models for urban areas. Travel decisions are part of a broader activity scheduling decision, and requires that we model the demand for activities as well as mobility. The objective of the research was to project emphasized development of a model system that captures the aspects of decision making while remaining applicable in the near term at the level of state and metropolitan planning organizations. The work indicates that activity-based modeling and forecasting is now feasible and can begin to replace the more traditional trip-based forecasting paradigm with MPOs in the United States. Further developments and improvements are possible in model estimation and application procedures. Furure advancements in computing processing power will be important in allowing full power of the approach to be applied in practice. This approach will be adapted to serve as an Activity Generator module for the TRANSIMS case study in Portland to be carried out during 1998 and 1999